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Is US Recession Risk Rising? Warning Signs Are Starting To Emerge
Recession talk for the US is on the march again. Although there’s still room for debate on the near-term business-cycle outlook, some indicators are highlighting decelerating growth that could be the start of trouble in the second half of the year into early 2025. To be fair, there’s plenty of real-time pushback that suggests the economic expansion will roll on. But a set of multi-factor indexes featured in the weekly updates of The US Business Cycle Risk Report show a marked deterioration in the macro trend. The Economic Trend Index (ETI) and Economic Momentum Index (EMI) continue to roll over after more than a ... (full story)