CA BOC Business Outlook Survey
It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment;
This report is highly respected given its source and timing in relation to interest rate decisions. It can also have predictive qualities regarding future economic conditions because the surveyed firms are selected in accordance with their composition of the nation's GDP;
- History
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Oct 16, 2023 | |
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Oct 17, 2022 | |
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- CA BOC Business Outlook Survey News
- From bankofcanada.ca|Apr 1, 2024
Business sentiment and sales growth expectations have stopped falling, according to firms responding to the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse. But demand remains subdued, which is allowing price pressures and the labour market to ease. As a result, fewer firms than in the previous survey are planning unusually large or frequent price increases over the next 12 months. Overview • Firms reported that demand remains weak overall. But there are some signs of returning optimism. Namely, indicators of business conditions, sales outlooks and employment intentions have changed direction after many quarters of decline. In the wake of weak past sales growth, expectations for improved sales are supported by population growth, efforts to enter new markets or develop new products, and expectations that interest rates will decline over the next 12 months.Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations - First Quarter of 2024 Consumers believe inflation has slowed, but their expectations for inflation in the near term have barely changed. Consumers link their perceptions of slowing inflation with their own experiences of price changes for frequently purchased items, such as food and gas. • Expectations for long-term inflation have increased, though they remain below their historical average. Relative to last quarter, consumers now think that factors contributing to high inflation—particularly high government spending and elevated home prices and rent costs—will take longer to resolve. • Canadians continue to feel the negative impacts of high inflation and high interest rates on their budgets, and nearly two-thirds are cutting or postponing spending in response. Although weak, consumer sentiment improved this quarter, with people expecting lower interest rates. As a result, consumers are less pessimistic about the future of the economy and their financial situation, and fewer think they will need to further cut or postpone spending. post:
BOC SURVEY: 40% OF FIRMS EXPECT INFLATION TO REMAIN ABOVE 3% FOR THE NEXT TWO YEARS, DOWN FROM 54% IN Q4. post:
BOC SURVEY: 27% OF FIRMS EXPECT CANADA TO BE IN A RECESSION OVER THE NEXT YEAR, DOWN FROM 38% IN Q4. post:
BOC SURVEY: OVERALL Q1 BUSINESS SURVEY INDICATOR -2.42, Q4 WAS -3.09 (REVISED FROM -3.15).
- From bnnbloomberg.ca|Jan 15, 2024
The Bank of Canada’s business and consumer surveys showed higher interest rates are working to ease inflation expectations and slow the rate at which companies raise prices. Monday’s reports underscored an economy hit by the bank’s aggressive rate hiking campaign, cementing views that its tightening cycle is likely done and setting the stage for policymakers to start considering cuts as early as the first half of this year. The central bank’s business outlook indicator rose slightly to -3.2 in the fourth quarter, from -3.5 ...
- From bankofcanada.ca|Jan 15, 2024
Results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse show that softer demand and renewed competitive pressures are slowly pushing down growth in output prices. Concerns about labour shortages are receding; even so, wage growth is expected to ease only gradually. Partly because of this slow easing, firms expect inflation to remain above the Bank of Canada’s 2% target for some time. • Firms’ pricing behaviour is slowly returning to normal; however, some businesses continue to make larger and more frequent price increases than they did before the COVID‑19 pandemic. Firms increasingly see demand and competition as moderating their output price growth. Nonetheless, businesses reported that downward pressure on the growth of their input and output prices has eased somewhat, leading to a less negative Business Outlook Survey indicator.Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Fourth Quarter of 2023 This survey took place between November 1 and 17, 2023. Follow-up interviews took place from December 1 to 8, 2023. • Consumers perceive inflation to have decreased, and their expectations for price growth for some key goods such as food and gas have moderated. But near-term inflation expectations have barely changed. Persistently high expectations for inflation for services such as rent may be slowing progress in returning overall inflation expectations to where they were before the COVID?19 pandemic. Expectations for inflation in the long term have fallen further below the historical average and continue to be more varied than usual. • People have adjusted their behaviour in response to high inflation. For the past few quarters, more consumers than before the pandemic have been paying attention to inflation and changing their spending habits. However, actions that may support inflation, such as seeking wage increases to offset inflation, are dissipating. post:
BOC 4Q Surveys: About 25% of Firms Don't Expect CPI to Return to 2% Over Next 4 Years
BOC 4Q Surveys: About 75% of Firms Say High Rates Have "Negatively Impacted" Operations
BOC 4Q Surveys: Roughly Two-Thirds of Households Intend to Curtail Spending
BOC 4Q…
- From bankofcanada.ca|Oct 16, 2023
Results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse show that firms expect their sales growth to be subdued over the next 12 months. This slowdown in demand is reducing capacity pressures and weighing on businesses’ plans for investment and employment. Although cost and pricing pressures continue to moderate, they are still expected to be higher than normal in the coming year. Firms’ inflation expectations edged down but remain higher than they were before the COVID‑19 pandemic. Many expect returning inflation to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target will take longer than three years. Overview • Firms reported that economic activity has slowed across a broad range of indicators. Their expectations for sales growth—especially sales to domestic customers—continued to moderate. • Roughly half of businesses said that their pricing practices are not yet back to normal. On balance, firms are still planning to make larger and more frequent price increases than they did before the COVID‑19 pandemic. But they expect to raise their selling prices at a slower rate than in the past 12 months as the pace of increases in their input costs slows.Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Third Quarter of 2023 • Consumers’ perceptions of current inflation remain elevated and are leading to persistently high expectations for inflation over the next 12 months. The gap between perceptions of inflation and actual inflation is unusually wide. This is likely because many consumers form their views based on their own shopping experience. Households with a large gap expect high price growth for essentials like food and housing. • Consumers’ expectations for interest rates one year from now also remain high. Many people think increases in interest rates are raising the cost of living and keeping inflation high. • The growing cost of living remains the most pressing concern for consumers. High inflation and rising interest rates have had a negative financial impact on most households and are causing more households than last quarter to reduce spending. post: SEPARATE BOC Q3 SURVEY ON CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS SHOWS 55% OF CANADIANS EXPECT A RECESSION THE NEXT YEAR, UP FROM 50% IN Q2 #News #Markets #CANADIAN #BOC #live post: Canada Business Outlook At Weakest Level Outside Recessions - Canada Firms See Fewer Hiring Shortages, Lower Wage Gains - Consumer Expectations For Wage Growth Reach A Record High
- From bankofcanada.ca|Jun 30, 2023
Results from the second-quarter 2023 Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse surveys from April through June 2023 show that firms continue to anticipate weak sales growth ahead. Nevertheless, businesses reported that their indicators of domestic demand have moved up compared with a year ago as uncertainty about the path of future interest rates and concerns of a recession fade. Although firms’ price-setting behaviour is gradually shifting closer to what it was before the pandemic, businesses continue to expect wage and price increases to be larger than normal. • Businesses continue to expect weak sales growth. For firms tied to housing and consumer discretionary spending, elevated interest rates are dampening their outlook. However, many businesses noted that their indicators of domestic demand are up slightly compared with a year ago. This change is tied to several factors, including:Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Second Quarter of 2023 Inflation expectations for one to two years ahead have come down again but remain well above their levels from before the COVID?19 pandemic. Consumers expect the growth of some goods prices to slow as supply chain pressures ease. • Some people continue to think the high cost of housing and heightened government spending are important factors keeping inflation above target. The increasing cost of living is the most pressing concern for consumers. Along with elevated interest rates, it continues to constrain most households’ spending. • Homeowners who are planning to renew their mortgage over the next two years and who expect a significant hike in their mortgage payments are likely to plan spending cuts. In contrast, many low-income households are already buying only necessities, leaving little room for further cuts to their spending. post at 10:32am:
*BANK OF CANADA BUSINESS INDICATOR FALLS TO -2.2 IN 2Q FROM -1.1 *CANADA BUSINESS OUTLOOK SOURS AGAIN TO WEAKEST SINCE Q3 2020 *BOC: ONE THIRD OF FIRMS & HALF OF CONSUMERS EXPECT RECESSION
- From bankofcanada.ca|Apr 3, 2023
The BOS indicator has moved down again (Chart 1).1 The decline is broad-based across regions and sectors. It reflects expectations for slower price growth and an easing in capacity pressures from exceptionally high levels, due in part to improved supply conditions. But pressures on prices and capacity—including labour—remain. As they did last quarter, firms expect slower sales growth. Firms participating in the BLP continue to express considerable concern over cost pressures, labour shortages and uncertainties stemming from high interest rates and inflation On average, business sentiment among firms surveyed in the BLP for the first quarter of 2023 is similar to that of the previous quarter (Chart 3). Results suggest that business conditions have not changed much since pressures on the global banking system increased. While about half of firms have incorporated the risk of a recession over the next 12 months into their business plans, they expect any potential recession to be mild. Some firms planning for a recession expect softer demand growth and are less likely to add staff or increase their investment spending. Most, however, are not currently makiCanadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—First Quarter of 2023 Expectations for inflation in the near term have edged down but remain elevated, mirroring actual inflation. The recent similarity between inflation expectations and actual inflation suggests that consumers are paying greater attention to actual inflation. This is particularly true for consumers who give consistent responses when asked in different ways about inflation expectations. Canadians’ concerns about inflation are still high but appear to be easing. Consumers expect monetary policy to continue to be effective and economic growth to slow. One respondent noted in a follow-up interview, “Inflation is a little bit less concerning now because of the action that [the Bank has] taken with interest rates that should reduce demand and inflation.” Respondents expect inflation to slow for goods, such as gasoline and vehicles. But while their inflation expectations for goods have fallen, consumers continue to be frustrated by high food prices at grocery stores. One respondent said, “Food prices create a lot of stress,” and, "This bothers me the most." Another sa post at 10:32am: Boc survey: overall business outlook survey indicator at -1.1%: over q4; q4 was -0.06%. post at 10:32am: Boc consumer survey: expectations for 1-year ahead inflation fell to 6.03% from 7.18% in q4, 2-years ahead inflation expectations drop to 4.27% from 5.14%. post at 10:31am: <CAD=>:
*Bank of Canada Survey: 79% of Firms Expect 3%-Plus CPI Over Next 2 Years *BOC Survey: 48% of Firms Expect Sales Volume to Slow Over Next Year *BOC Survey: Gauge of Business Confidence Declines for 5th Straight Quarter
- From bnnbloomberg.ca|Jan 17, 2023
Canadian business sentiment fell to its lowest since the Covid-19 pandemic in a central bank survey, while consumer expectations for short-term inflation held at a record high. Data released Monday by the Bank of Canada show the economy adjusting to high interest rates and heading to a period of weaker growth or even a mild recession. More businesses than usual expect their sales to decline, and consumers have reduced their spending plans. The central bank’s business outlook indicator fell to 0.07 in the fourth quarter, from a ...
- From bankofcanada.ca|Jan 16, 2023
Business sentiment has deteriorated again. In an environment with softening demand and moderating capacity constraints, results for almost all survey questions used to calculate the Business Outlook Survey (BOS) indicator have decreased. The BOS indicator declined this quarter to roughly zero (Chart 1). This level is slightly below the average of the past 10 years, suggesting business confidence is somewhat weaker than usual. Concerns about demand and credit have risen among firms (Chart 2). While many businesses still view cost ...
Released on Apr 1, 2024 |
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Released on Jan 15, 2024 |
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Released on Oct 16, 2023 |
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Released on Jun 30, 2023 |
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Released on Apr 3, 2023 |
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Released on Jan 16, 2023 |
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