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China: Uncertainty remains high
Private sector confidence continues to be weak even if official numbers showed that GDP increased by 5.2% in 2023. Growth will be dependent on fiscal stimulus in 2024 which may worsen China’s long-term challenges. According to the official data, China’s GDP increased by 5.2% in 2023 and in quarterly terms growth slowed down to 1.0% q/q. However, it is good to take the headline numbers with a pinch of salt given that the robust annual growth rate was partly explained by the very weak 2022. Furthermore, the quarterly GDP numbers are often hard to combine with the monthly indicators and do not completely add up with ... (full story)