Fitch Ratings expects China’s new home sales value to decline by 15%-20% to CNY8.3 trillion-8.8 trillion in 2024, reflecting a 10%-15% decline in gross floor area (GFA) sold and 5% decline in average selling prices (ASP). This follows sales trends in the first four months that have fallen short of our previous forecasts of a 5%-10% sales value decline, and also reflects the more prominent downward pressure in new home prices. The new home ASP had been stable relative to GFA in previous years, with changes of +4%, -2%, and +6% in 2021, 2022 and 2023, respectively, due partially to a sales mix shift toward higher-tier ... (full story)