Out of 26 banks surveyed by Bloomberg there are 16 going for a 25bp rate cut by the Bank of Canada on 5 June, versus 10 favouring the BoC keeping the overnight lending rate at 5%. Markets are seeing a similar balance of probabilities with around a two-in-three chance of a 25bp rate cut currently priced. The data is seemingly arguing in favour of a move and we think, given the BoC’s history of being prepared to make bold calls, that it will narrowly opt for a 25bp cut. The caveat is that BoC officials haven’t been especially vocal on the prospect of a cut and they may instead choose to use this meeting to tee up a ... (full story)